Marcus Chen
The What Are the Odds tool on DNA Painter is a free resource that can be used to analyse DNA matches and determine how someone might fit into your family tree. The tool, also known as WATO, can be used to test a hypothesis about a DNA match and determine where in your family tree they could possibly fit, providing probabilities for each potential spot. To use the tool, you must enter a target name and year of birth, research question, build a small tree or upload your GEDCOM, and enter the amount of shared DNA. WATO then generates a score for each hypothesis, with higher scores being more statistically likely. However, it is important to note that WATO has some limitations, such as inaccurate results with double relationships and endogamy.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Name | What Are the Odds |
| Other Names | WATO |
| Use | To determine where in a family tree a DNA match could possibly fit, and provide probabilities for each potential spot in the tree |
| Input | Target name and year of birth, research question, family tree, and amount of shared DNA |
| Output | Probabilities for each potential spot in the family tree |
| Limitations | Not designed for double relationships, endogamy, or recent pedigree collapse |
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What You'll Learn
Using the tool to find someone's place in a family tree
DNA Painter is a web-based application that helps genealogists make sense of DNA testing. It has a tool called What Are the Odds (WATO) that can help determine where in a family tree a DNA match could possibly fit. It provides probabilities for each potential spot in the family tree, calculated based on the family tree information that you enter and the amount of shared DNA that the match shares with people in the tree.
To use WATO, you must enter a target name and year of birth, research question, build a small tree (or upload your GEDCOM), and enter the amount of shared DNA that your target DNA match shares with at least one person in the family tree. The target is the person whose relationship to you or someone else in your tree you want to determine. For example, if you want to know how a mystery match, "W.L." is related to "BP", your research question would be "How is WL related to BP?". You can then upload your GEDCOM file, which will extract all their descendants. You can also manually enter people into your tree by clicking on a node and typing their name.
Once you've built your tree, you can enter the number of centimorgans the target shares with any matches in the tree and then enter hypotheses, or potential places where the mystery person might fit into the tree. WATO will then generate a score for each of the hypotheses, with higher scores indicating a higher likelihood of correctness. If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible. However, a high score is not necessary for a hypothesis to be correct. The odds ratios are made by comparing all hypotheses that are considered possible and then determining the relative likelihood of each.
WATO can be useful in various scenarios, such as unknown parentage cases or simply curious about an unknown match. It can help map out possible relationships based on the amount of shared DNA. However, it has limited applications in endogamous populations due to a lack of statistical data. Additionally, recent pedigree collapse may affect the scores, leading WATO to incorrectly rule out some possible relationships.
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Limitations of the tool
Limitations of the What Are the Odds (WATO) tool on DNA Painter:
The WATO tool is not designed for double relationships. For instance, if you have double cousins or cousins who are three-quarter siblings, the results may be inaccurate. Similarly, WATO does not handle endogamy well as it increases the overall DNA, leading to inaccurate results.
WATO is an advanced tool and requires the user to have a clearly stated research question and have done enough genealogical work to identify a person or couple who are the Most Recent Common Ancestor(s) (MRCA) of two or more DNA matches. It is also important to note that WATO is based on Ancestry simulations that only go to 9th-degree relatives, meaning 4C, 3C2R, 2C4R, half-3C1R, etc., and down to 40 cM. Beyond this, approximations are made, and the analysis will not be accurate unless the majority of relationships are closer than 9th degree and the majority of matches are over 40 cM.
While WATO can generate a score for each hypothesis, indicating the statistical likelihood of a hypothesis being correct, it does not provide definitive answers. For example, in cases where the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, but a high score is not necessary for a hypothesis to be correct.
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How to upload a GEDCOM file
To upload a GEDCOM file to DNA Painter, you must first have an active DNA Painter subscription. You should also have DNA results available from one of the major autosomal DNA testing companies, such as Ancestry DNA or 23andMe.
Next, you need to create a free DNA Painter account. If you are using the site on a phone, you will need to rotate your device horizontally to see the 'Load GEDCOM' link at the top right of your ancestral tree. You will then see an overlay where you can upload your GEDCOM to an ancestral tree.
A form field will appear, inviting you to type the name of the person whose ancestors you want to import. After you type in their name, a dropdown will appear below the box. You can then select the person you want to create an ancestral tree for.
Click 'Import GEDCOM' and select your file. Your file should be a GEDCOM file with the file extension '.ged' or '.gedcom'. Please note that this will overwrite everything currently in your tree.
If your family tree is on Ancestry, you can easily export your family tree into a GEDCOM file. If you would prefer not to upload your tree, you can manually enter the ancestors and relatives in the line that you are investigating.
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How to use the tool to test a hypothesis
The What Are the Odds (WATO) tool on DNA Painter is a great resource for testing a hypothesis about how someone might fit into your family tree. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to use this tool:
- Choose a target DNA match: This is the person whose relationship to you or someone else in your family tree you want to determine. For example, if you want to know how a mystery match, "W.L.", is related to "BP" in your tree, that would be your research question.
- Enter the name and year of birth for the target: This information helps to identify the person and provide a timeframe for potential relationships.
- Build a small family tree or upload a GEDCOM file: You can manually enter information about your family members into the WATO tool, creating a skeletal tree. Alternatively, you can upload a GEDCOM file, which contains your family tree information.
- Enter the amount of shared DNA: For the target DNA match, enter the amount of shared DNA they have with at least one person in your family tree. This information is crucial for the tool's calculations.
- Generate and evaluate hypotheses: The WATO tool will generate possible hypotheses for how the target might fit into your family tree, along with probabilities for each potential spot. These probabilities are based on the family tree information and the amount of shared DNA. A probability of 0.00% means a relationship is not statistically possible given the shared DNA.
- Refine your research: After reviewing the hypotheses and probabilities, you can focus your research on the most likely paths. You may need to do additional genealogical work to confirm relationships or identify specific relatives.
- Consider limitations: Keep in mind that WATO has some limitations. It may not produce accurate results for certain types of relationships, such as double cousins or endogamous populations.
- Save your work: If you're using a DNA Painter account, remember to save your work so that you can refer back to it later.
By following these steps, you can effectively use the What Are the Odds tool to test your hypothesis and gain insights into your family tree and potential relationships.
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How to interpret the odds ratio
Odds ratios are a measure of the strength of association with an exposure and an outcome. An odds ratio (OR) compares the odds of an event between two different groups. The odds of an event are the ratio of how likely the event is to occur and how likely it is to not occur.
For example, suppose an event has a probability of 75%. The odds of that event are 75% / 25% = 3:1, read as "3 to 1". An OR > 1 (< 1) implies a positive (negative) association between a continuous predictor and the outcome. An OR of 1 implies no association.
When interpreting an odds ratio, it is important to remember that the "times the odds" style may be clearer than the "% greater odds" style. For example, an OR of 2.5 can be interpreted as "2.5 times the odds of" or "150% greater odds than".
The DNA Painter tool, What Are the Odds (WATO), generates an odds ratio for each hypothesis. If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, and the higher the score, the more likely it is. However, a high score is not necessary for a hypothesis to be correct.
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Frequently asked questions
What Are the Odds, also known as WATO, is a tool on DNA Painter that helps you figure out where someone might fit into a known family tree by using the amount of DNA they share with people in that tree.
To use the What Are the Odds tool, you must enter a target name and year of birth, research question, build a small tree (or upload your GEDCOM), and enter in the amount of shared DNA that your target DNA match shares with at least one person in the family tree.
If the odds are above zero, the hypothesis is possible, and the higher a score is, the more likely it is. If a probability appears in red as '0.00%', this means this relationship is not statistically possible given the shared cM amount you've entered.
Yes, the tool is not meant for endogamous populations or double relationships. Endogamy may significantly affect the scores, and double cousins may result in inaccurate results.
